Welcome: I am pleased to introduce a Special Topics Section to the Institute for Applied Economics, Global Health, and the Study of Business Enterprise website. Venezuela, where I was President Rafael Caldera’s economic advisor 1995-96 and am currently advisor to Christian Democratic Presidential Candidate Roberto Enriquez, is the first Special Topic because it is, well, special.

―Steve H. Hanke
[email protected]
@Steve_Hanke

Introduction:

Venezuela’s economy is collapsing. This is the result of years of socialism, incompetence, and corruption, among other things. An important element that mirrors the economy’s collapse is Venezuela’s currency, the bolivar. It is not trustworthy. Venezuela’s exchange rate regime provides no discipline. It only produces instability and poverty. Currently, Venezuela is experiencing one of the the highest inflations in the world. The works and links below offer information and analyses of Venezuela’s monetary problems. Two proven solutions to Venezuela’s currency woes are proposed: a currency board or full official dollarization.

Congressional Testimony:
Hanke, Steve H. “On Venezuela’s Tragic Meltdown.” Working paper no. 78. Studies in Applied Economics, The Johns Hopkins Institute for Applied Economics, Global Health, and the Study of Business Enterprise, Mar. 2017.

Venezuela officially becomes the 57th entry in the Hanke-Krus World Hyperinflation Table:
Hanke, Steve H. and Charles Bushnell. “On Measuring Hyperinflation: Venezuela’s Episode.” Vol. 18, No. 3. World Economics. World Economics, Sep. 2017.

Current implied annual inflation rate as of 9/29/20: 1,899%

On the definition of hyperinflation:
Following Phillip Cagan’s classic 1956 article, the standard and practice in the economics profession is to define hyperinflation as an inflation episode in which the monthly inflation rate is at least 50% per month. In addition, to enter the Hanke-Krus “World Hyperinflation Table”, which was published in the Routledge Handbook of Major Events in Economic History (2013), the 50% monthly rate must be maintained for at least 30 consecutive days. To put this monthly rate of 50% into perspective, consider a hyperinflation episode that lasted for an entire year and that the inflation rate in each month was 50%. Then, the annual inflation rate would be determined by simply annualizing the 50% rate, yielding an annual inflation rate of 12,874.63%.

Exchange rate data:

• Black market rate of the bolivar
• Banco Central de Venezuela (official statistics, not always reliable)

Public opinion surveys:

• Hanke, Steve H and Maria Belén Wu. “A Survey of Venezuelan Public Opinion on the Replacement of Either the Bolivar with the U.S. Dollar or the Central Bank of Venezuela with a Currency Board.” Working paper no. 81. Studies in Applied Economics, The Johns Hopkins Institute for Applied Economics, Global Health, and the Study of Business Enterprise, May. 2017.

On the price of oil:

• Hanke, Steve H. “On the Price of Oil.” Globe Asia. Globe Asia, Jun. 2016. Web.

Selected works on the Venezuelan economy:

Short Articles

• Hanke, Steve H. “Finally, Maduro is Listening.” National Review. 18 Nov. 2020. Web.
• Hanke, Steve H. “Hanke’s Inflation Dashboard: Measurements vs. Forecasts.” National Review. 5 Nov. 2020. Web.
• Hanke, Steve H. “Last Rites for Venezuela’s State-Owned Oil Company.” National Review. 23 Oct. 2020. Web.
• Hanke, Steve H. “Hanke’s Inflation Dashboard: The Media’s Misreporting on Hyperinflation.” National Review. 7 Oct. 2020. Web.
• Hanke, Steve H. “What Are the World’s Saddest (and Happiest) Countries?” National Review. 26 Feb. 2020. Web.
• Hanke, Steve H. “The Political Economy of Venezuela and PDVSA.” Georgetown Journal of International Affairs. 26 Feb. 2020. Web.
• Hanke, Steve H. “Venezuela’s Hyperinflation Drags On For A Near Record – 36 Months.” Forbes. 13 Nov. 2019. Web.
• Hanke, Steve H. “Venezuela’s Opposition is Playing With Fire.” Forbes. 15 Feb. 2019. Web.
• Hanke, Steve H. “Why Venezuela Should Embrace Dollarization” in Rafael Acevedo (Ed.) Prosperity and Liberty: What Venezuela Needs. Econintech. 2019. Print.
• Hanke, Steve H. “Venezuela’s Hyperinflation, 29 Months and Counting“, inFocus Quarterly, Issue No. 2, Volume No. 13. Jewish Policy Center, Spring 2019. Web.
• Hanke, Steve H. “Hanke’s Annual Misery Index 2018: The World’s Saddest (And Happiest) Countries.” Forbes. 29 March 2018. Web.
• Baddour, Dylan. “How to Feed Starving Venezuelans: Cryptocurrency.” Ozy. 13 Feb. 2019. Web.
• Hanke, Steve H. “Without A Currency Board, Venezuela’s Opposition Will Fail.” Forbes. 31 Jan. 2019. Web.
• Hanke, Steve H. “The U.S. Declares Economic War Against Venezuela.” Forbes. 29 Jan. 2019. Web.
• Hanke, Steve H. “Venezuela’s Hyperinflation Hits 80,000% Per Year in 2018.” Forbes. 1 Jan. 2019. Web.
• Hanke, Steve H. “Venezuela’s Hyperinflation, 24 Months and Counting.” Forbes. 23 Oct. 2018. Web.
• Hanke, Steve H. “Venezuela’s Retrogressing Economy — Exhibit 1, PDVSA.” Forbes. 19 Sept. 2018. Web.
• Hanke, Steve H. “Venezuela’s Great Bolivar Scam, Nothing But A Face Lift.” Forbes. 18 Aug. 2018. Web.
• Hanke, Steve H. ” IMF Produces Another Bogus Venezuela Inflation Forecast.” Forbes. 31 Jul. 2018. Web.
• Hanke, Steve H. “Venezuela’s Episode of Hyperinflation Reaches New “Highs” – Prices Double Every 17.5 Days.” Forbes. 12 May. 2018. Web.
• Hanke, Steve H. “Venezuela’s Hyperinflation And The IMF’s Faulty Forecasts.” Forbes. 25 Apr. 2018. Web.
• Hanke, Steve H. “Measuring Venezuela’s hyperinflation.” Central Banking. Central Banking Publications Ltd, 2 Mar. 2018. Web.
• Hanke, Steve H. “Hanke’s Annual Misery Index: the World’s Saddest (And Happiest) Countries.” Web log post. forbes.com. Forbes. 28 Feb. 2018. Web.
• Hanke, Steve H. “Maduro’s ‘Petro’ Cryptocurrency Will Join Chavez’s Bolivar Fuerte, in the Graveyard.” Web log post. forbes.com. Forbes 6 Dec. 2017. Web.
• Hanke, Steve H. “Hyperinflation: Much Talked About, Little Understood.” Web Log post. forbes.com. Forbes 31 Oct. 2017. Web.
• Hanke, Steve H. “Venezuela’s Maduro Flunks His Economic Literacy Test.” Web log post. forbes.com. Forbes. 10 Sep. 2017. Web.
• Hanke, Steve H. “Inflation Is Among The Costs of Venezuela’s War On The Private Sector.” Web log post. forbes.com. Forbes. 31 Aug. 2017. Web.
• Hanke, Steve H. “Hyperinflation Usually Produces Hype, An Antidote In One Table.” Web log post. forbes.com. Forbes. 29 Jun. 2017. Web.
• Hanke, Steve H. “On Venezuela’s Death Spiral.” Web log post. forbes.com. Forbes. 30 Mar. 2017. Web.
• Hanke, Steve H. “Venezuela’s PDVSA: The World’s Worst Oil Company.” Web log post. forbes.com. Forbes. 6 Mar. 2017. Web.
• Hanke, Steve H. “Solving Caracas Currency Chaos.” OMFIF. OMFIF, 23 Dec. 2016. Web.
• Hanke, Steve H. “Venezuela’s Bolivar Redenomination Will Fail.” Web log post. zerohedge.com. Zero Hedge, 14 Dec. 2016. Web.
• Hanke, Steve H. “Venezuela Enters the Record Book, Officially Hyperinflates.” Web log post. zerohedge.com. Zero Hedge, 12 Dec. 2016. Web.
• Hanke, Steve H. “Venezuela: On the Simple Arithmetic of Inflation.” Web log post. zerohedge.com. Zero Hedge, 29 Nov. 2016. Web.
• Hanke, Steve H. “Venezuela: The FT Bows to Authority (The IMF).” Web log post. zerohedge.com. Zero Hedge, 15 Nov. 2016. Web.
• Hanke, Steve H. “Venezuela’s Inflation – Zero Hedge Repeats the Errors Printed Ad Nauseam in the Financial Press.” Web log post. zerohedge.com. Zero Hedge, 31 Oct. 2016. Web.
• Hanke, Steve H. “Venezuela’s Inflation: The Wall Street Journal’s Reportage is Off, Way Off.” Web log post. zerohedge.com. Zero Hedge, 25 Oct. 2016. Web.
• Hanke, Steve H. “Venezuela’s Inflation Plunges, Nigeria’s Surges.” Web log post. zerohedge.com. Zero Hedge, 8 Aug. 2016. Web.
• Hanke, Steve H. “Venezuela vs. Ecuador (Chavismo vs. Chavismo Dollarized).” Globe Asia. Globe Asia, Jul. 2016. Web.
• Hanke, Steve H. “Venzuela, Look to Ecuador and Dollarize.” Web log post. zerohedge.com. Zero Hedge, 27 Jun. 2016. Web.
• Hanke, Steve H. “Saudi Arabia, Venezuela, and Nigeria: Lessons from Muhammad Ali.” Web log post. zerohedge.com. Zero Hedge, 13 Jun. 2016. Web.
• Hanke, Steve H. “The IMF’s Feeding the Press Unreliable Inflation Figures on Venezuela.” Web log post. cato.org. The Cato Institute, 7 Jun. 2016. Web.
• Hanke, Steve H. “IMF Forecasts 83% Decline of Venezuela’s Bolivar by Year’s End.” Web log post. Zerohedge.com. Zero Hedge, 13 May 2016. Web.
• Hanke, Steve H. “Venezuela, That Sinking Feeling.” Web log post. Zerohedge.com. Zero Hedge, 1 May 2016. Web.
• Hanke, Steve H. “The World’s Worst Central Bank.” Web log post. Zerohedge.com. Zero Hedge, 11 Mar. 2016. Web.
• Hanke, Steve H. “Venezuela: Ricardo Hausmann versus Nicolas Maduro.” Web log post. cato.org. The Cato Institute, 8 Feb. 2016. Web.
• Hanke, Steve H. “Economic Headwinds: Big Players, Regime Uncertainty and the Misery Index.” Globe Asia. Globe Asia, Feb. 2016. Web.
• Hanke, Steve H. “Venezuela’s Lying Statistics.” Web log post. Zerohedge.com. Zero Hedge, 19 Jan. 2016. Web.
• Hanke, Steve H. “The NYT Fails Its Inflation Exam.” Huffington Post. N.p., 19 Oct. 2015. Web.
• Hanke, Steve H. “Venezuela: Not Hyperinflating—Yet.” Web log post. cato.org. The Cato Institute, 4 Jun. 2015. Web.
• Hanke, Steve H. “Venezuela’s Inflation: Up, Up, and Away.” Web log post. cato.org. The Cato Institute, 1 Jun. 2015. Web.
• Hanke, Steve H. “Venezuela: World’s Highest Inflation Rate.” Web log post. cato.org. The Cato Institute, 26 May 2015. Web.
• Hanke, Steve H. “Venezuela: No Rule of Law, Bad Money.” Globe Asia. Globe Asia, May. 2015. Web.
• Hanke, Steve H. “Venezuela: On the Death of Chavez and the Ailing Bolivar.” Huffington Post. N.p., 12 Mar. 2013. Web.

Reports

• Hanke, Steve H. “On Venezuela’s Tragic Meltdown.” Working paper no. 78. Studies in Applied Economics, The Johns Hopkins Institute for Applied Economics, Global Health, and the Study of Business Enterprise, Mar. 2017.
• Hanke, Steve H. and Charles Bushnell. “Venezuela Enters the Record Book – The 57th Entry in the Hanke-Krus World Hyperinflation Table.” Working paper no. 69. Studies in Applied Economics, The Johns Hopkins Institute for Applied Economics, Global Health, and the Study of Business Enterprise, Dec. 2016.
• Wu, María Belén. Asuntos en la reforma monetaria y económica de Venezuela. Working paper no. 68. Studies in Applied Economics, Johns Hopkins University. The Johns Hopkins Institute for Applied Economics, Global Health, and the Study of Business Enterprise, Dec. 2016. Web.
• Wu, María Belén. Issues in Venezuelan Monetary and Economic Reform. Working paper no. 62. Studies in Applied Economics, Johns Hopkins University. The Johns Hopkins Institute for Applied Economics, Global Health, and the Study of Business Enterprise, Sep. 2016. Web.

Radio and Television Interviews

• Hanke, Steve H. “Venezuela’s Excruciatingly Long Hyperinflation.” CEDICE Libertad. 28 June 2020. Web.
• Hanke, Steve H. “New Campaign Would Allow Cryptocurrency Donations To Be Distributed To Venezuelans.” NPR. 21 April 2019. Web.
• Hanke, Steve H. “Steve H. Hanke discusses several topics on Venezuela and Latin America on the Silver Doctors Gold, Silver & Finance News podcast.” Cato Institute. 1 Feb. 2019. Web.
• Hanke, Steve H. “Steve H. Hanke discusses 52,000% Inflation in Venezuela on The Steve Pomeranz Show.” Cato Institute. 5 Dec. 2018. Web.
• Hanke, Steve H. “Professor Steve Hanke Explains Hyperinflation.” Mises Institute. 24 Aug. 2018. Web.
• Hanke, Steve H. “Steve H. Hanke discusses the Venezuelan bolivar on BBC World’s Global with Matthew Amroliwala.” Cato Institute. 22 Aug. 2018. Web.
• Hanke, Steve H. “Steve H. Hanke discusses the Venezuelan bolivar and Iran sanctions on WSJ Opinion: Foreign Edition with Mary Kissel.” Cato Institute. 22 Aug. 2018. Web.
• Hanke, Steve H. “Steve H. Hanke discusses the Venezuelan bolivar on IG TV.” Cato Institute. 22 Aug. 2018. Web.
• Hanke, Steve H. “Steve H. Hanke discusses the Venezuelan bolivar on SkyNews.” Cato Institute. 21 Aug. 2018. Web.
• Hanke, Steve H. “Steve H. Hanke discusses the Venezuelan bolivar on BBC’s World Update.” Cato Institute. 21 Aug. 2018. Web.
• Hanke, Steve H. “Juan Carlos Hidalgo and Steve H. Hanke discuss Venezuela hitting one million percent inflation on CBN.” Cato Institute. 14 Aug. 2018. Web.
• Hanke, Steve H. “Steve H. Hanke discusses sanctions towards Venezuela on BBC Radio’s Newsday.” Cato Institute. 10 Nov. 2017. Web.

Works on a currency board approach to monetary reform:

Books

• Emanuele, Carlos Julio. Dolarización 2000-2018: Mitos y Realidades, Competitividad, Libertad Económica y Calidad de Vida. El Caso de Ecuador. 1st ed. Venezuela: Fundación Ecuador, March 2018. The Johns Hopkins Institute For Applied Economics, Global Health, and the Study of Business Enterprise. OffsetAbad C.A., 2018. (ISBN 978-9942-8668-3-7)
• Hanke, Steve H., and Kurt Schuler. Currency Boards for Developing Countries: A Handbook. 2nd ed. San Francisco: ICS, 2015. The Johns Hopkins Institute for Applied Economics, Global Health, and the Study of Business Enterprise. International Center for Economic Growth, 2015. Web. (ISBN 978-1558153097)
• Hanke, Steve H., and Kurt Schuler. Juntas Monetarias para países en desarrollo: Dinero, inflación y estabilidad económica. 2nd ed. Caracas: Cedice Libertad, 2015. The Johns Hopkins Institute for Applied Economics, Global Health, and the Study of Business Enterprise. International Center for Economic Growth, 2015. Web. (ISBN 978-980-7118-29-3)

Articles & Reports

• Hanke, Steve H. “Currency Boards.” The SAGE Encyclopedia of Business Ethics and Society. Ed. Robert W. Kolb. Thousand Oaks: SAGE Publications, 2018. 803-04.
• Hanke, Steve H. “How to Stop Venezuela’s Fatal Inflation.” Web log post. forbes.com. Forbes. 3 Apr. 2017. Web.
• Hanke, Steve H. “The Hong Kong Dollar, Rock Solid.” Globe Asia. Globe Asia, Mar. 2016. Web.
• Hanke, Steve H. “A Golden Currency Board.” Swiss Derivatives Review. International Commodities and Derivatives Association, Summer 2012. Web.
• Hanke, Steve H. “On Dollarization and Currency Boards: Error and Deception.” The Journal of Policy Reform 5.4 (2002): 203-22. Tandfonline.com. Taylor & Francis Online, 27 Oct. 2010. Web.
• Hanke, Steve H. “Why Argentina Did Not Have a Currency Board.” Central Banking 18.3 (2008): 56-58. Central Banking Publications Ltd, Feb. 2008. Web.
• Hanke, Steve H. “Scorecard for Bulgaria’s Currency Board.” Central Banking 18.1 (2007): 75-77. Central Banking Publications Ltd, Aug. 2007. Web.
• Hanke, Steve H. “Argentine Straw Man: A Response to Currency Board Critics.” Cato Journal 23.1 (2003): 47-57. Cato.org. The Cato Institute, Summer 2003. Web.
• Hanke, Steve H. “Currency Boards.” The ANNALS of the American Academy of Political and Social Science 579.1 (2002): 87-105. Jan. 2002. Web.
• Hanke, Steve H. “The Disregard for Currency Board Realities.” Cato Journal 20.1 (2000): 49-59. Cato.org. The Cato Institute, Summer 2000. Web.

Works on a dollarization approach to currency reform:

Books

• Cordeiro, Jose Luis. La Segunda Muerte De Bolivar… Y El Renacer De Venezuela. Caracas: Cedice, 2016. Print. (ISBN 978-980-7118-35-4)

Articles & Reports

• Hanke, Steve H. “Dollarization.” The SAGE Encyclopedia of Business Ethics and Society. Ed. Robert W. Kolb. Thousand Oaks: SAGE Publications, 2018. 962-64.
• Hanke, Steve H. “Stop Venezuela’s Economic Death Spiral — Dollarize, Now.” Web log post. forbes.com. Forbes. 15 Aug. 17. Web.
• Hanke, Steve H. “It’s Time to Dump Most Central Banks.” Web log post. forbes.com. Forbes. 6 Mar. 2017. Web.
• Hanke, Steve H. “On Montenegro’s March to NATO.” Huffington Post. N.p., 17 Dec. 2015. Web.
• Santos, Tristana. The Dollarizers. Working paper no. 31. Studies in Applied Economics, Johns Hopkins University. The Johns Hopkins Institute for Applied Economics, Global Health, and the Study of Business Enterprise, Apr. 2015. Web.
• Hanke, Steve H. “Money and the Rule of Law in Ecuador.” The Journal of Policy Reform 6.3 (2003): 131-45. Tandfonline.com. Taylor & Francis Online, 3 June 2010. Web.
• Hanke, Steve H. “Fewer Central Banks, Please.” Globe Asia. Globe Asia, Jun. 2007. Web.
• Hanke, Steve H. “Argentine Endgame: Couple Dollarization With Free Banking.” Cato Foreign Policy Briefing 67 (2001): 1-11. Cato.org. The Cato Institute, 4 Dec. 2001. Web.
• Schuler, Kurt. Basics of Dollarization. United States. Cong. Joint Economic Committee. 106th Cong., 2nd sess. Cong. Rept. Washington, D.C.: n.p., 2000. 349-94. Web.
• Schuler, Kurt. Fundamentos de la Dolarizacion. United States. Cong. Joint Economic Committee. 106th Cong., 2nd sess. Cong. Rept. Washington, D.C.: n.p., 1999. Web.
• Hanke, Steve H., and Kurt Schuler. “A Dollarization Blueprint for Argentina.” Cato Foreign Policy Briefing 52 (1999): 1-25. Cato.org. The Cato Institute, 11 Mar. 1999. Web.
• Hanke, Steve H., and Kurt Schuler. “A Monetary Constitution for Argentina: Rules for Dollarization.” Cato Journal 18.3 (1999): 405-19. Cato.org. The Cato Institute, Winter 1999. Web.

General works on inflation:

• Hanke, Steve H. Remembrances of a Currency Reformer: Some Notes and Sketches from the Field. Working paper no. 55. Studies in Applied Economics, Johns Hopkins University. The Johns Hopkins Institute for Applied Economics, Global Health, and the Study of Business Enterprise, Jun. 2016. Web.
• Hanke, Steve H. “The Troubled Currencies Project.” Cato.org. The Cato Institute, n.d. Web.
• Simon, Oliver. Introduction to the Implied Inflation Rate Data Set. Working paper no. 11. Studies in Applied Economics, Johns Hopkins University. The Johns Hopkins Institute for Applied Economics, Global Health, and the Study of Business Enterprise, Jan. 2014. Web.
• Hanke, Steve H., and Nicholas Krus. Inflation By The Decades. 6 vols. Baltimore: Johns Hopkins Institute for Applied Economics, Global Health, and the Study of Business Enterprise, 2014. Cato.org. The Cato Institute, 2014. Web.
• Hanke, Steve H., and Nicholas Krus. World Hyperinflations. Working paper no. 8. The Cato Institute, 15 Aug. 2012. Web.
• Hanke, Steve H., and Alex Kwok. “On the Measurement of Zimbabwe’s Hyperinflation.” Cato Journal 29.2 (2009): 353-64. Cato.org. The Cato Institute, Spring/Summer 2009. Web.
• Hanke, Steve H. “Zimbabwe: From Hyperinflation to Growth.” Development Policy Analysis 6 (2008): n. pag. Cato.org. The Cato Institute, 25 June 2008. Web.