Working Papers

Bayesian Inference in IV Regression,” 2025 (with Michele Lenza and Giorgio Primiceri).

Demand Driven Inflation,” 2025 (with Giorgio Primiceri).

Macroeconomic Forecasting and Machine Learning,” 2025 (with Ta-Chung Chi, Ting-Han Fan, Raffaele M. Ghigliazza, and Zixuan (Kevin) Wang)

Scenario Synthesis and Macroeconomic Risk,” 2025 (with Tobias Adrian, Matteo Luciani, and Mike West).

Debt-at-Risk,” 2025 (with Davide Furceri, Mr. Faizaan Kisat, Waikei Raphael Lam, and Hongchi Li).

The Drivers of post-pandemic inflation,” 2024 (with Giorgio Primiceri).

800,000 Years of Climate Risk” (with Tobias Adrian, Nina Boyarchenko, Ananthakrishnan Prasad, Dulani Seneviratne, and Yanzhe Xiao).

Bank Capital and Real GDP Growth” (with Nina Boyarchenko and Anna Kovner).

Flighty Liquidity” (with Nina Boyarchenko and Or Shachar).